A multivariate global spatiotemporal stochastic generator for climate ensembles
Edwards, M., Castruccio, S., Hammerling, D.. (2019). A multivariate global spatiotemporal stochastic generator for climate ensembles. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-019-00352-8
| Title | A multivariate global spatiotemporal stochastic generator for climate ensembles |
|---|---|
| Genre | Article |
| Author(s) | M. Edwards, S. Castruccio, Dorit Hammerling |
| Abstract | In order to understand and quantify the uncertainties in projections and physics of a climate model, a collection of climate simulations (an ensemble) is typically used. Given the high-dimensionality of the input space of a climate model, as well as the complex, nonlinear relationships between the climate variables, a large ensemble is often required to accurately assess these uncertainties. If only a small number of climate variables are of interest at a specified spatial and temporal scale, the computational and storage expenses can be substantially reduced by training a statistical model on a small ensemble. The statistical model then acts as a stochastic generator (SG) able to simulate a large ensemble, given a small training ensemble. Previous work on SGs has focused on modeling and simulating individual climate variables (e.g., surface temperature, wind speed) independently. Here, we introduce a SG that jointly simulates three key climate variables. The model is based on a multistage spectral approach that allows for inference of more than 80 million data points for a nonstationary global model, by conducting inference in stages and leveraging large-scale parallelization across many processors. We demonstrate the feasibility of jointly simulating climate variables by training the SG on five ensemble members from a large ensemble project and assess the SG simulations by comparing them to the ensemble members not used in training. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online. |
| Publication Title | Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics |
| Publication Date | Sep 15, 2019 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-019-00352-8 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7057k2f |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| CISL Affiliations | CISLVISITORS |